大越期货尿素早报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is moderately weak, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year-on-year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is neutral, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the materialization of export expectations has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include strong international prices and rebounding agricultural demand; bearish factors include domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Prices: The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1620 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1620 (0), and the FOB China price is 2741 [6]. - Futures Prices: The price of the UR01 contract is 1660 (-7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1732 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1755 (+2) [6]. - Basis: The basis of the UR01 contract is -40 (+27) [6]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts is 6415 (+1830), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 97,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - Capacity and Production: From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E [9]. - Net Imports and Consumption: Net imports and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [9]. - Inventory and Consumption Growth: The期末 inventory and consumption growth rates have also changed over the years [9].