大越期货甲醇周报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol factories still focus on sales with low inventories. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of the bearish atmosphere of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the start - up of coastal MTO plants. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to price support at the bottom. The port market is also expected to decline weakly under the influence of high supply expectations and high inventories. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different regions in China showed varying degrees of decline this week. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the price in Hebei decreased by 3.94% from 2,155 yuan/ton to 2,070 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the futures price decreased by 3.12% from 2,180 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The basis showed a change of 1 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol production profit decreased from 130 yuan/ton on October 31st to - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a weekly decline of 166 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol decreased from 305 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 323 yuan/ton. [10] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [12] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - The CFR China price decreased from 251 US dollars/ton on October 31st to 246 US dollars/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.99%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 323.5 US dollars/ton to 322.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The spread between them changed from - 72.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton. [15] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost of methanol decreased from 2,208 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,165 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.96%. The import spread changed from - 51 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. [18] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00%. [24] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased from - 149 yuan/ton to - 111 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased from 490 yuan/ton to 611 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. Acetic acid production profit increased from 214 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%. [25][27][32] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit increased from - 202 yuan/ton to 214 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18%. [36] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.18 to 78.8, an increase of 0.62. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 50.11 to 49.81, a decrease of 0.30. [37] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,837 on October 31st to 10,914 on November 7th, a decrease of 7.80%. The valid forecasts remained at 0, with a change of 0.00%. [41] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons has been under maintenance since early November, and Qinghai Zhonghao with a capacity of 600,000 tons has been under maintenance since October 23, 2024, until the end of March 2025. [43] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one unit restored, but it needs verification. [44] 3.3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Many olefin plants have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have future production or maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days. [45]