广发期货日评-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - Treasury Bond: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - Precious Metals: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - Steel: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - Iron Ore: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - Coke: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - Other Metals: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - PX and PTA: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - Other Chemicals: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - Grains and Oils: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - Livestock and Poultry: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - Fruits and Others: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].