大越期货原油早报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to trade in a narrow range, waiting for more information. Russian oil supply may decline due to sanctions and harassment, while the US government's potential reopening may boost the financial market and stabilize oil prices. Currently, the market is in a stalemate, with medium - to long - term downward pressure and short - term waiting for geopolitical developments. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while medium - to long - term supply may increase. The market is affected by factors such as optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and potential OPEC+ production adjustments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The long - lasting US government shutdown may end this week, and a compromise bill has cleared initial hurdles in the Senate. Russia's Tuapse refinery in the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports after a drone attack, and US sanctions on Lukoil are approaching [3]. - Basis: On November 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.64 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.95 per barrel, with a basis of 33.29 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected increase of 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market to replace Russian oil. HPCL bought 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, and MRPL bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude [5]. - US President Trump said he would lower tariffs on Indian goods and that the US was "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India [5]. - A temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown is expected to pass in the Senate on Monday evening, but it also needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president [5]. - Fed officials are divided on further interest rate cuts. Some are skeptical, while others are open to it, and one called for a 50 - basis - point cut in December [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ may suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - Bearish: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: Brent crude settled at $64.06 (up $0.43, 0.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.29, 0.48%), SC at 460.2 (up 3.30, 0.72%), and Oman at $64.99 (up $0.36, 0.56%) [7]. - Spot Quotes: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.60 (down $1.07, - 1.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.38, 0.64%), Oman at $65.64 (up $0.27, 0.41%), Shengli at $60.87 (down $0.06, - 0.10%), and Dubai at $65.62 (up $0.62, 0.95%) [9]. - Inventory Trends: API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the same period [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Net Long Position: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - Brent Net Long Position: As of October 28, the net long position was 171,567, an increase of 119,046 [19].