Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones, high imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production increases. It will be affected by the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and continued arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term and await further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the inventory of soybeans in oil mills also declined from a high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile range in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the China - US trade negotiation agreement, means that the soybean meal market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 6. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32]. - Domestic: From 2015 to 2024, China's soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have all increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [33]. 7. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - US: In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average. In 2025, the early - stage harvest progress is also provided [35][38][42]. - Brazil: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 are presented, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][43]. - Argentina: The planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/2025 is given, with a comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [41]. 8. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 9. Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year [47]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level [48]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the demand for off - season stockpiling decreased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the US soybean price, and the futures profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The domestic pig inventory has been increasing, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded recently, while piglet prices remain weak [55][57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has improved recently [61].
大越期货豆粕早报-20251111
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-11 02:39