大越期货菜粕早报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Given the uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the market will fluctuate in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors in the current situation, and the future trend depends on the final result of the anti - dumping ruling and trade relations between China and Canada [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound trend in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but export is expected to decrease due to China - Canada trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, with the production in Canada higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Base difference: The spot price is 2630, the base difference is 103, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared with last week's 1.8 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared with 2.2 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - Transaction data: From October 31 to November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the average trading price showed certain fluctuations, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [13]. - Price summary: Rapeseed meal futures prices first rose and then fell, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium fluctuated slightly [15][17]. - Import situation: There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - Inventory of oil mills: The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains low [24][26]. - Aquaculture situation: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - From October 30 to November 10, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts showed a downward trend [16].