大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251111

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, concluding that both are likely to show a weak and volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, high - neutral industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6800 (+30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 28, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE's comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the China - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC+ suspended production increases, causing oil price fluctuations. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [6]. - Inventory: PP's comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with an oversupply situation, fluctuating crude oil prices, and high - neutral industrial inventories [6]. - Likely Factors: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and the China - US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Over the years, capacity has been increasing, with a 20.5% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has generally decreased, and consumption growth has fluctuated [13]. - Polypropylene: The supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2018 - 2024 and an estimated capacity for 2025E. Capacity has been growing steadily, with an 11.0% estimated growth in 2025E. Import dependence has also decreased over time [15].