大越期货贵金属周报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, there were no significant events, risk preference fluctuations cooled down, and precious metal prices fluctuated. Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the slowdown in employment data. The US dollar index declined, and the RMB slightly depreciated. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in December. The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract, while the service PMI rebounded strongly. The US employment market showed signs of cooling, with a significant increase in corporate layoffs. Overall, this week, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Precious Metal Price Movements: - Shanghai Gold 2512 closed up 0.32%, reaching a maximum of 827.28; COMEX Gold closed up 0.28%, reaching a maximum of 4043.1 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai Silver 2512 closed up 0.65%; COMEX Silver closed up 0.13%. - London Gold Spot decreased by 0.06%, and London Silver Spot decreased by 0.68%. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, reaching a maximum of 100.363, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.04% [4][15]. - Macroeconomic Data: - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, and the expectation of a rate cut in December increased. - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5; the ISM service PMI was 52.4, rebounding strongly and reaching an eight - month high. - The US employment market showed signs of cooling. As of September, the number of corporate layoffs was nearly 950,000, and the number of government layoffs was nearly 300,000. In October, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs increased by 175.3% year - on - year, and the total number of layoffs this year exceeded 1 million [15][17][18]. - Other Events: - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, setting a record for the longest shutdown, but the possibility of it ending over the weekend increased. - The US Geological Survey included copper in the 2025 key minerals list for the first time [15][19]. 3.2 Weekly Review - Last week, there were no significant events, and the precious metal prices fluctuated and closed up. The US government shutdown affected the stock market, but Trump still expected the US stock market to reach a new high. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and the US economic data were the same as in the last week's review [15][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Precious Metal Price Ratios: Data on the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices are presented, including the ratio of London gold and silver spot prices and Shanghai gold and silver spot prices [20]. - Correlation with the US Dollar Index: Charts show the relationship between London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, and the US dollar index [22][23]. - Correlation with Stock Indexes: Charts show the relationship between precious metals and major global stock indexes such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc. [24]. - US Treasury Yield: The US 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated and fell to 4.38% [26]. 3.4 Position Data - Shanghai Gold and Silver Top 20 Positions: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position began to rebound, with both long and short positions increasing. This week, the long position was 165,261, a decrease of 2,214 from last week; the short position was 67,608, a decrease of 1,415 from last week; the net position was 97,653, a decrease of 799 from last week. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. This week, the long position was 354,598, an increase of 35,258 from last week; the short position was 255,979, an increase of 3,609 from last week; the net position was 98,619, an increase of 31,649 from last week [29][32]. - CFTC Positions: As of September 23, the CFTC gold net position remained net long, with a slight increase in the net long position and an increase in both long and short positions; the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data was not updated [33]. - ETF Positions: - The SPDR Gold ETF position continued to stop falling and increased slightly. - The silver ETF position continued to decrease [36][38]. - Inventory Data: - The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase. - The COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. - The Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling, and the COMEX Silver inventory continued to decrease [40][41][43]. 3.5 Summary This week, China will release a series of important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and the non - farm data may be postponed. Fed officials will make frequent statements, and Trump may attend the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling" hearing. Overall, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15].