《能源化工》日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - Supply and Demand: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - Supply and Demand: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - Inventory and开工率: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - Supply and Demand: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].