《黑色》日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, given the high steel inventories and winter storage pressure, the iron - water production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to decline. The iron element supply on the January contract is becoming looser, and it is expected to be weaker than the carbon element. It is recommended to hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage strategy, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively [2]. - For the iron ore industry, due to weakening steel prices and declining steel mill profits, the demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. With the supply being relatively loose, it is advisable to short iron ore futures at high prices and consider the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [5]. - For the coking coal and coke industries, the overall coal - coke market is in a tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1250 - 1350 and long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850, and adopt the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy while guarding against the negative feedback risk from falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased. The basis varied by region and contract [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China rose by 10 yuan/ton, while those in North and South China remained stable. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace and converter rebar decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions declined [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The output of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 to 856.7, a 2.1% decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6, a 0.7% decline [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.8, a 23.8% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 49.5 to 866.9, a 5.4% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for some types changed, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a 14.8% decline. The global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a 4.5% decline [5]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83, a 1.3% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 to 66006, a 1.8% increase [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industries Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. For coke, the 01 and 05 contract prices also decreased [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample mines and the daily average output of the full - sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills decreased [8]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a 0.9% decline [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some going into de - stocking and some increasing. The coke inventory also had different trends among different entities [8].