《农产品》日报-20251111

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Pig Industry - Current pig market is in a range - bound pattern with limited downside. The slowdown of overall November planned slaughter volume may boost pig prices. Strategy: continue to hold the 3 - 7 backwardation spread and maintain a cautiously bullish view on single - side trading [2] Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil: Due to weak export data, the market is bearish. It will fluctuate between 4000 - 4100 ringgit in the short - term in the international market and 8500 - 8600 yuan in the domestic market, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. - Soybean oil: EPA's decision on small refinery exemptions adds uncertainty to renewable fuels, pressuring CBOT soybean oil. Domestic factory output decreased, inventory reduced, and basis quotes are supported, but overall demand is not strong [4] Egg Industry - In November, the inventory of laying hens is expected to remain high, and egg supply pressure persists. Terminal demand is average. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6] Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar production increased year - on - year, and the new sugar - crushing season is expected to have a significant increase in production. Raw sugar prices are weak. The domestic market is less affected by import quotas, with delayed sugar - crushing in Guangxi expected. Sugar prices will fluctuate [9] Cotton Industry - Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure but also has cost support. Downstream demand is weak, but inventory pressure is not large. Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short - term [10] Corn Industry - With the release of moist corn and improved weather, farmers' selling enthusiasm is price - sensitive. Corn supply pressure remains in November, but prices are restricted by cost and storage policies. Corn prices will rebound and fluctuate in the short - term, but the subsequent selling pressure may limit the rebound [11] Meal Industry - The market is waiting for the USDA report on the 14th. Although the US - China partial agreement boosts demand confidence, the 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean inventory is high, oil - mill operation declines, and soybean meal inventory decreases. Soybean meal prices will fluctuate widely [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract for live pigs 2605 is 12070 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value. The price of live pigs 2601 is 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The 1 - 5 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, up 17.86%. The main contract position decreased by 3.86%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices in various regions showed different changes, with prices in Henan, Shandong, etc. rising, and prices in Liaoning falling. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.46%, the weekly price of daily strips decreased by 100%, the weekly price of piglets decreased by 15%, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged [2] Oil and Fat Industry Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of P2601 is 8660 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The basis decreased by 30%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8% [4] Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The price of Y2601 is 8228 yuan/ton, up 0.54%. The basis increased by 7.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8% [4] Spreads - The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes. The spot - futures spread of soybean - palm oil decreased by 3.12%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.13% [4] Egg Industry Indicators - The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3176 yuan/500KG, down 1.34%. The price of the 01 - contract is 3383 yuan/500KG, down 0.24%. The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased by 1.95%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.28%, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% [6] Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 is 5475 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The price of sugar 2605 is 5405 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.92%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 0.34%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.81%, and the effective forecast decreased by 17.72% [9] Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning decreased by 2.09%, and the basis in Kunming decreased by 3.16%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also decreased [9] Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year. The national sales rate decreased by 2.6%, and the Guangxi sales rate increased by 4.8%. National industrial inventory decreased by 41.2%, and Guangxi industrial inventory increased by 62.9%. Sugar imports increased by 37.5% [9] Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 is 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The price of cotton 2601 remained unchanged. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 1.24%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100%. The position of the main contract decreased by 1.06%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.33%, and the effective forecast decreased by 10.78% [10] Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. The spread between 3128B and the 01 - contract increased by 0.28%, and the spread between 3128B and the 05 - contract decreased by 0.64% [10] Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 70.4%, industrial inventory increased by 9.7%, the import volume increased by 42.9%, the inventory in the bonded area increased by 8%, the yarn inventory days increased by 3.5%, and the grey cloth inventory days increased by 1.7% [10] Corn Industry Corn - The price of corn 2601 is 2164 yuan/ton, up 0.70%. The basis decreased by 45.45%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.52%. The southern - northern trade profit increased by 1000%, the import profit increased by 8.77%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 21.46% [11] Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 is 2479 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The basis decreased by 35.42%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.10%, and the spread between starch and corn on the 01 - contract increased by 0.64% [11] Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The current price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The price of M2601 is 3063 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The basis decreased by 250%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in February decreased by 88.4%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3% [16] Rapeseed Meal - The current price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2530 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The price of RM2601 is 2527 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The basis increased by 200%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in January decreased by 5.42%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16] Spreads - The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [16]