Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase this week, and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 10, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 740.0, 782.5, 795.0, and 813.0 respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 4.0, 2.5, and 7.5 and corresponding percentage changes of -0.27%, 0.51%, 0.32%, and 0.93% compared to November 7 [1] - The 11 - 01 and 11 - 03 spreads were -42.5 and -55.0 respectively, down 6.0 and 4.5 from November 7 [1] - The 11 - contract and 01 - contract basis were 10.0 and -32.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0 and -4.0 from November 7 [1] - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in ports remained unchanged, except for the 4A medium - radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 to 760, a decline of 1.30% [1] - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market remained unchanged at 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 10, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.120, with no change from November 9. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length, was 811.79 yuan, down 0.43 yuan from November 9 [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) from September [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 293 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 million cubic meters (1.74%) from October 31. The inventories in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 191.50, 82.45, and 82.26 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 3.2, 0.2, and 0.24% compared to October 31 [1][2] Demand - As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.63 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (6%) from October 31. The daily average outbound volumes in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 6.63, 3.79, and 2.28 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 0.35 (6%), 0.60 (19%), and - 0.15 (-6%) compared to October 31 [2] Forecast of Arrival - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of expected arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 12, a decrease of 4 (25%) from last week. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 13.6 million cubic meters (26%) from last week [2]
原木期货日报-20251111
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-11 05:11