瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. The production of nickel - iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure [2]. - Downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average. As a result, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, the position increases while the price drops, with a strong short - selling atmosphere and a downward - channel trend. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - selling strategy near the MA30 resistance level, and pay attention to the support at 12,400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 - 8008 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,426 lots, a decrease of 305 lots; the main - contract position is 38,421 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 71,735 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless - steel in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 570,800 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new - construction area of houses is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The State Council's General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The government shutdown is likely to end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation at 11 am on Monday. Senate Republican leader Thune said that bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process; otherwise, it may take most of this week to complete the legal procedures. - Private - sector data shows that the consumer - price increase in the US slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy, and the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December [2].