Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit of Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton textile exports, also providing some support. With the current situation of long - short factors intertwined, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 116,286 lots, down 1,085 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 17 lots, up 3 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest is 573,905 lots, up 3,733 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 24,626 lots, down 341 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,619 pieces, up 325 pieces; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 19 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,972 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,958 yuan/ton; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,678 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 86.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 10 tons, up 3 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 886 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 102.17 tons, down 46 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 207.4 tons, up 4.6 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247 million US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516 million US dollars, down 426,685.77 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 6.8%, down 5.43%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 6.8%, down 5.43% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.46%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.85%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly with the concentrated listing of new cotton. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8478 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5217 million tons (a 22.43% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2.3115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4725 million tons (a 25.69% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area is 0.01883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00231 million tons (a 13.98% increase) [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The sign of the end of the US government shutdown boosted the market sentiment. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed up 0.69 cents, or 1.08%, at 64.31 cents per pound [2] Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is about 96.1%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The current commercial inventory is gradually recovering, and the inventory of imported cotton has increased significantly, reaching a new high in 3.5 months. Due to less outbound of imported cotton, the market trading volume is limited, and the arrival volume is stable [2] - Demand side: The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, and enterprises' confidence in future demand shows signs of improvement, but the increase in new orders is still limited. Attention should be paid to the export situation [2]
瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251111
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:09