Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and gradually increasing demand, with industrial inventory reduction and positive expectations. Optionally, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a decrease of 0.0348 compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,853 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,371 lots, down 1,756 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 20,440 lots, down 229 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,275 tons, up 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 115,035 tons, down 1,105 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,725 tons, up 450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 42,964 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 86,765 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 86,845 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 135 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 14.85 dollars/ton, up 3.37 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.04 dollars/kiloton, up 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 77,150 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,850 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton. The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 52,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 59,040 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.1 million pieces, up 120,949 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 17.33%, down 0.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.33%, down 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 13.61%, down 0.0041%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, down 0.0348 [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the future weakening of the US economy and advocates for a faster pace of rate cuts than the traditional 25 - basis - point per - time. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue rate cuts on the basis of the 50 - basis - point rate cuts this year with an "open mind". In October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.951 million and 2.242 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 11.4% and a decline of 0.8%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.657 million and 1.282 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 19.8% and 7.3%. From January to October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 23.738 million and 19.25 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.6% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 12.037 million and 10.151 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 30.3% and 21.9%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document focusing on the large - scale development and high - quality consumption of new energy, proposing phased goals and seven key tasks to build a new power system compatible with a high proportion of new energy to support the carbon peak and national self - contribution goals [2].
沪铜产业日报-20251111
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:17