瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic fundamentals' continuous repair and the implementation of broad fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.475，跌0.01%，成交量52193，减少6637；TF主力收盘价105.935，持平，成交量48332，减少777；TS主力收盘价102.462，持平，成交量28422，增加3493；TL主力收盘价116.300，持平，成交量73470，减少22627 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，增加0.00；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.83，减少0.03；T2512 - 2603价差0.23，增加0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.54，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.02；TS2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.00；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.01，持平；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.47，减少0.00 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量225549，减少5844；T前20名多头234412，减少2128；T前20名空头255127，减少2085；T前20名净空仓20715，增加43；TF主力持仓量131787，减少6611；TF前20名多头131668，减少3580；TF前20名空头151475，减少5572；TF前20名净空仓19807，减少1992；TS主力持仓量65702，减少1663；TS前20名多头67457，增加184；TS前20名空头78722，增加845；TS前20名净空仓11265，增加661；TL主力持仓量125664，减少3486；TL前20名多头135731，减少1371；TL前20名空头155816，减少1648；TL前20名净空仓20085，减少277 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.5601，涨0.0330；250018.IB(4y）净价99.0955，持平；250003.IB(4y）净价99.6141，涨0.0104；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨0.0184；220016.IB(1.7y)净价101.8925，涨0.0140；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0447，涨0.0078 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 210005.IB(17y) 1y收益率1.3950，涨0.3342；210014.IB(18y) 3y收益率1.4375，跌0.0022；5y收益率1.5800，跌0.25bp；7y收益率1.6985，涨3.85bp；10y收益率1.8050，跌0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4860，涨3.60bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.5080，涨2.90bp；银质押7天利率1.5100，涨1.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.5010，涨2.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4500，跌5.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.5180，涨2.60bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y利率3.00，持平；5y利率3.5，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4038亿，到期规模1175亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放2863亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 截至10月29日，5000亿新型政策性金融工具资金全部投放完毕，支持重点领域民间投资项目；国务院办公厅印发促进民间投资发展措施；美国国会参议院就结束政府“停摆”达成一致，政府有望尽快重启 [2] 3.10 Market Situation - 周二国债现券收益率涨跌不一，国债期货多数持平，DR007加权利率回升至1.51%附近震荡；国内10月CPI同比小幅回升，核心CPI明显改善，PPI降幅连续第3个月收窄，出口同比增速意外转负；海外美国10月ISM服务业PMI创8个月新高，制造业PMI大幅不及预期，ADP就业新增4.2万人，劳动力市场下行风险缓和但整体需求放缓 [2] 3.11 Strategy - 10月央行国债买卖操作审慎但释放宽松信号；经济基本面修复和宽财政政策需低利率环境配合；市场预期央行购债以中短期限为主，短端利率有望下行并带动长端利率走低，需警惕风险偏好回升对长端利率的压制；操作上建议每逢调整轻仓试多 [2]