贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, but in the short - term (November), there is no strong driving force, and the market is in an adjustment phase [3]. - Copper: The spot market's purchasing sentiment is high, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper is 86,535 yuan/ton with an expanding premium. However, when the price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton, downstream counter - offer willingness increases. Whether the copper price can break through the trading - intensive area remains to be seen [12]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry. For alumina, it is on an over - supply path despite some price increases due to environmental restrictions [33]. - Zinc: In November, the TC dropped significantly due to intense competition for mines and limited domestic mine increments. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and low inventory supports the price. There is some upward driving force in November, and export and macro factors need to be monitored [58]. - Nickel: Weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The Philippines' nickel mine production and shipment are affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the price may remain strong in the short - term. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel demand needs attention [74]. - Tin: Supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption in Wabang and reduced concentrate imports. The Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock, with a predicted support at around 276,000 yuan. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply increment is stable, and demand is strong in November. The market sentiment is positive. Technically, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend [104]. - Silicon: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Outlook: Medium - to long - term upward trend, short - term adjustment in November [3]. - Price Data: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold and silver prices, and their ratios are presented in the report [4]. - Spread Data: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot spreads are shown [5][7]. - Inventory Data: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are provided [11]. Copper - Spot Market: High purchasing sentiment, average 1 electrolytic copper price at 86,535 yuan/ton, and expanding premium [12]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are given. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 86,630 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17% [13]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented [19][21]. - Import and Processing: Copper import profit is - 585.37 yuan/ton, and copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton [24]. - Scrap - to - Refined Spread: The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 3,393.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13.58% [28]. - Warehouse Receipts and Inventory: Shanghai copper's total warehouse receipts are 42,964 tons, a decrease of 1.88% [29]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Funds drive the price, but there is a contradiction with the industry. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is weak [33]. - Alumina: Some price increases due to environmental restrictions, but overall in an over - supply situation [33]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum futures, alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures are provided [35]. - Spread Data: Various spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina are presented [37][39]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international aluminum spot prices and premiums are given [43]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai and London aluminum warehouse receipts and inventories, as well as alumina warehouse receipts, are reported [52]. Zinc - Market Outlook: TC dropped in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the price, and there is upward driving force [58]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided [59]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented [67]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts and inventories are reported [71]. Nickel - Market Situation: Weak demand in the off - season, affected by macro factors. Nickel mine prices may be strong, and nickel iron and stainless - steel demand need attention [74]. - Price and Volume Data: The latest prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt numbers of Shanghai and London nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are given [75]. Tin - Market Outlook: Supply is weaker than demand, and the price will maintain a high - level shock. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [90]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot products are presented [95]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai tin's warehouse receipts and London tin's inventory are reported [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Outlook: Supply is stable, demand is strong, and it is in a shock - upward trend [104]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are given [105]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot products, as well as their price differences, are presented [110]. - Inventory Data: The latest numbers, daily and weekly changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and various social inventories are reported [114]. Silicon - Market Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, with wide - range fluctuations expected [116]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116]. - Industry Chain Price: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain are presented [123][124][125]. - Production and Inventory: The weekly production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as the polysilicon inventory, are reported [130][134][143].