油脂油料产业日报-20251111

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: After oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures started a rebound following the release of the MPOB supply - demand report. It is expected to rise to the 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit range. However, due to slow exports and high production in November, it may face downward pressure at this range and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. With future declines in production and inventory, it may rebound [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound trend. Driven by the Malaysian palm oil, it may reach the annual resistance line around 8,900 yuan, with strong resistance at 8,950 - 9,000 yuan. After filling the gap around 8,950 yuan, it may face downward pressure and potentially test the 8,500 - yuan support [3]. Soybean Oil - The Dalian soybean oil futures are rising, following the BMD palm oil and supported by the decrease in domestic oil inventory. The BMD palm oil had a nearly 12% decline in about a month and has a technical rebound demand. Last weekend, the factory soybean oil inventory decreased by over 90,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils decreased by over 150,000 tons. However, the news of Cofco's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage by Sinograin restricts its increase. In the short term, it may still rise slightly, with resistance at 8,300 - 8,330 yuan for the January contract. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil rise, it may break through; otherwise, it will enter a volatile adjustment [4]. Soybean Meal - The Dalian soybean meal 01 contract is oscillating. Cost support and poor crushing margins underpin the price, while weak spot prices limit the upside. With the news of Sinograin's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage to Cofco, the short - term support range for the main contract may be 3,000 - 3,020 yuan. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the inventory has decreased to 969,000 tons as of the end of the 45th week, a 19.74% week - on - week decrease. However, the near - term basis remains weak [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts increased by 0.92%, 0.71%, and 0.44% respectively. The BMD palm oil main contract rose 1.19% to 4,161 ringgit/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price increased by 140 yuan to 8,740 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50 yuan to - 90 yuan/ton [7]. - Soybean Oil: Soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts had a - 0.29%, 0.25%, and 0.31% change respectively. The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.81% to 50.53 cents/pound. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot price increased by 50 yuan to 8,400 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 40 yuan to 162 yuan/ton [11]. - Oil Spreads: Various oil month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads are provided, such as the P 1 - 5 spread at - 102 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the Y - P 01 spread at - 462 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - Futures Price: The closing prices and changes of bean meal 01, 05, 09, and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 contracts are presented. For example, the bean meal 01 contract closed at 3,054 yuan, down 9 yuan or - 0.29% [16]. - Spread: The spreads between different contracts of bean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the M01 - 05 spread at 218 yuan, down 16 yuan; the RM01 - 05 spread at 79 yuan, down 20 yuan [17]. Oil and Oilseed Pressing Profit - International Soybean: The international soybean pressing profit, including the US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF, is shown. The profit has fluctuated over time, with values ranging from - 500 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30]. - Imported Rapeseed: The pressing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed also shows fluctuations, with values from - 1,000 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30].