LPG早报-20251112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil gas may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season. The profit contraction of PDH may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high with a possible decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4387 (+10), in Shandong was 4400 (+20), and in South China was 4490 (+35). The price of etherified C4 was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis changing by 17 (-37) daily, and the December - January spread was 85 (-5). FEI was 493 (-1.75) and CP was 468 (+0) US dollars per ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 lots (+250). The cheapest deliverable was the civil gas in East China at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80). The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH dropped significantly (some plants were shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated. Domestic production decreased, the factory inventory was basically flat; the arrival was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.45% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].