Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices made a slight correction this week, finding support at the 85,000 level from downstream concentrated price fixing. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak. The 85,000 level is a psychological price for downstream price fixing, and the industry support at this level should be monitored [1]. - The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and the high electricity prices overseas have increased the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have strengthened significantly, but the domestic demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and it is likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has risen this week. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened under the current pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level. With the Indonesian policy having a certain motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week, and the near - term spread strengthened. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated this week. The supply has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. - The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 825, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [1]. - Market Analysis: This week, copper prices corrected slightly. The market is generally not pessimistic about next year's demand. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until Q1 next year, and the 85,000 level may be a psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased, the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged, the domestic social inventory of aluminum was not provided in the table, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [2]. - Market Analysis: The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and high overseas electricity prices have increased the expectation of production cuts. Aluminum prices have strengthened, but the domestic demand has weakened, and the inventory has increased. The future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of zinc changed, the prices of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 400 [5]. - Market Analysis: The supply of zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased by 50, and the prices of other products remained unchanged [9]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level [9]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, the social inventory was not clearly presented in the table, and the LME inventory increased by 24,525 [12]. - Market Analysis: Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the spot import and export earnings of tin changed, the LME inventory decreased by 20 [15]. - Market Analysis: The supply of tin has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 176 [16]. - Market Analysis: The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased, the basis of the main and near - term contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 608 [16]. - Market Analysis: The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing [16]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From November 5 - 11, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [19]. - Market Analysis: The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19].
永安期货有色早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-12 01:03