芳烃橡胶早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: Near - term TA partial device maintenance leads to a decline in start - up rate, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates, and basis is weak. PX domestic start - up recovers. In the future, TA low processing fees have persisted for a long time, and with the improvement of terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based has maintenance and some load reduction, load declines, overseas devices operate stably, port inventory accumulates. In the short term, inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but considering the low efficiency, supply may decrease, and the valuation has limited room to decline further. In the long term, the overall pattern is expected to weaken [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term start - up rate increases, sales decline, inventory remains stable. Short - fiber exports maintain high growth, with limited inventory pressure and low processing fees on the disk. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Natural Rubber: National explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, Thai cup - rubber prices are stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - Styrene: The prices of raw materials and products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene and some downstream products has changed. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From November 5th to 11th, crude oil increased by $1.1, PTA spot price decreased by $5, and processing fees increased by 34 [2]. - Device Changes: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [2]. - Market Outlook: Low processing fees may gradually recover due to terminal data improvement [2]. MEG - Price and Spread Changes: From November 5th to 11th, MEG outer - disk price decreased by $3, and coal - based profit decreased by $22 [2]. - Device Changes: Yankuang's 400,000 - ton and Zhonghuaxue's 300,000 - ton devices are under maintenance [2]. - Market Outlook: Short - term inventory accumulation may continue, but supply may decrease, and long - term pattern may weaken [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread Changes: On November 11th compared with November 5th, 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price decreased by $50, and short - fiber profit decreased by $45 [2]. - Device Changes: Fujian Shanli restarts, and the start - up rate increases to 96.8% [2]. - Market Outlook: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: Weekly, the prices of dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased by $30, and the prices of Shanghai full - latex and 3L rubber increased by $235 and $100 respectively [5]. - Market Outlook: With stable inventory and rainfall affecting tapping, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 5th to 11th, the price of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by $10, and the domestic profit of styrene increased by $80 [9]. - Market Outlook: The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate, and the profit situation of products changes.