沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel Futures (沪镍2512): It is expected to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support. The overall fundamental situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term, although there are some bullish factors in the basis [2]. - Stainless Steel Futures (不锈钢2601): It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a bullish basis and a bearish trend on the chart [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - Nickel: On November 11, 2025, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 15,025 US dollars, down 75 US dollars. Spot SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 yuan, up 100 yuan [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of stainless steel main contract was 12,520 yuan on November 11, 2025, down 45 yuan from the previous day. The average price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions showed mixed trends [12]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - Nickel: As of November 11, LME nickel inventory was 253,308 tons, down 96 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 32,292 tons, down 241 tons. The total inventory was 285,600 tons, down 337 tons [15]. - Stainless Steel: As of November 11, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 71,735 tons, down 296 tons. As of November 7, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.034 million tons, up 0.29 million tons month - on - month, with the 300 - series inventory at 639,500 tons, down 12,400 tons month - on - month [19][20]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron: The prices of red - soil nickel ore with different grades and the freight rates from the Philippines to Chinese ports remained stable on November 11, 2025. The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 2.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [23]. - Stainless Steel Production: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,716 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,894 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,544 yuan [25]. - Nickel Import: The calculated import price of nickel was 120,492 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4 Factors Affecting Market - Bullish Factors: The nickel ore price is firm, providing cost support. There is new nickel production capacity coming on stream, and at the same time, some production is cut, so the short - term output may decline [7]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The inventory at home and abroad continues to accumulate [7].