大越期货沪铜早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral supply - demand fundamental situation, with some disturbances on the supply side such as smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. The manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0% in October. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, like the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances include smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, indicating a slowdown in production activities; assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86815, with a basis of 185, showing a premium over the futures; assessment is neutral [2]. - Inventory: On November 11, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 136250 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1105 tons to 115035 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - Market: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward; assessment is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and the long position increased; assessment is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - Spot: The document provides information on the spot including location, mid - price, change, and inventory details, but specific data is not fully disclosed [6]. - Exchange Inventory: Information about exchange inventory is mentioned but specific details are not provided [11]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - Processing Fee: The processing fee has declined [16].