大越期货纯碱早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The overall supply is expected to be abundant, with high production from alkali plants and the anticipated commissioning of Yuanyang Phase II before the end of the year. The downstream demand is facing challenges, such as potential disruptions in the supply of float glass and a continuous decline in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short - term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: High production from alkali plants, expected commissioning of Yuanyang Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. There are potential supply disruptions in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is on a declining trend. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,215 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 45 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171.42 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,226 | 1,170 | - 56 | | Current Value | 1,215 | 1,170 | - 45 | | Change Rate | - 0.90% | 0.00% | - 19.64% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in Fundamental Analysis - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production Capacity Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.68 million tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 41.48 million tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - Changes in Production Capacity: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual commissioning of 1 billion tons [21]. 3.7 Demand in Fundamental Analysis - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in Fundamental Analysis The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171.42 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (million tons) | Production (million tons) | Operating Rate | Import (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Net Import (million tons) | Apparent Supply (million tons) | Total Demand (million tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (million tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3,035 | 2,715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2,577 | 2,517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3,087 | 2,583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2,474 | 2,523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3,247 | 2,804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2,679 | 2,631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3,317 | 2,757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2,655 | 2,607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3,288 | 2,892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2,842 | 2,764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3,114 | 2,944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2,749 | 2,913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3,342 | 3,228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3,166 | 3,155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3,930 | 3,650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3,536 | 3,379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]