棉花早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral. The 25/26 annual production, consumption, and inventory data from different institutions show a balanced situation overall. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report indicates a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - Currently, new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10% compared to the previous period. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton about to be listed, and the current traditional consumption off - season [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - Different institutions have different estimates of cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 period. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons; the USDA 9 - month report shows a production of 2562.2 tons, consumption of 2587.2 tons, and an ending inventory of 1592.5 tons; the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast has a production of 660 tons, imports of 140 tons, consumption of 740 tons, and an ending inventory of 845 tons [4]. - In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2每日提示 - The basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,842, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1282, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast of ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - The market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [6]. 3.3今日关注 - There is no specific content marked as "今日关注" in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - Global production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from the USDA's September forecast are presented, showing the situation of different countries and regions. For example, in terms of production, the total global production in the 25/26 period is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [14]. - The Chinese cotton supply - demand balance sheet shows data on initial inventory, sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton average price, and the Cotlook A index from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [17]. 3.5持仓数据 There is no specific content about "持仓数据" in the report. 3.6预期 - New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10%. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5].