焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-12）-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, the supply is tight with limited mine capacity release. Downstream replenishment has been active recently, but the mid - trading sector is cautious due to high prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth, while negative factors are slower procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [3][5]. - For coke, production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies. Terminal demand is weakening, and the price is in a situation where it is difficult to rise or fall, expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors are rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while negative factors are squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mine capacity release is limited, supply is tight. Downstream replenishment is active, but mid - traders are cautious. Market sentiment has declined slightly [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 217, spot premium over futures [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal has changed from long to short [3]. - Expectation: Downstream coking enterprises' production utilization rate is stable, but some have slowed down replenishment due to high coal prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 5, spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short and the short position is increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke production is limited, terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Price - On November 11, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [10]. - On November 11, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].