大越期货菜粕早报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term market will maintain a range - bound oscillation influenced by soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the price difference of the 2601 contract, also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading data: From November 3rd to 11th, the trading volume of soybean meal ranged from 4.69 to 31.41 million tons, and the trading price was between 3070 - 3092 yuan/ton. Rapeseed meal had no trading volume during this period, and the trading price was between 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 438 - 479 yuan/ton [13]. - Price data: From November 3rd to 11th, the price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was between 2491 - 2549 yuan/ton, the price of the 2605 contract was between 2378 - 2428 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From October 31st to November 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745 [16]. - Aquatic product data: The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal View and Strategy - Fundamentals: The rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and with uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term market will maintain a range - bound oscillation influenced by soybean meal. It is considered neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2610, with a basis of 110, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - Main position: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, the rapeseed meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern. Future developments should be monitored [9].