大越期货原油早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, with increasing geopolitical concerns. The US Navy's largest aircraft carrier arrived near Latin America, and Russia's energy exports are expected to decline significantly at the end of the month. India, one of the largest buyers, has reduced its share, which supports crude oil. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger. SC2512 is expected to operate in the 465 - 475 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The Republican - controlled House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the 42 - day government shutdown. Although the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil shipments from ports remained stable in early November, but India has reduced its Russian crude oil purchases in December [3]. - Basis: On November 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37/barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.33/barrel. The basis was 29.51 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 31, US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels. As of November 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of November 4, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - India's Crude Oil Purchase: India's five major core refiners have not placed any orders for Russian crude oil for next month. This change occurred after Trump doubled the tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in August and sanctioned two major Russian oil producers last month [5]. - Ukrainian Attack on Russian Refinery: Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian oil refinery in the Volga region this month. The Saratov refinery, which can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year [5]. - Nigeria's Oil and Gas Production: With the approval of 43 oil field development plans this year, Nigeria is expected to add 1.7 billion barrels of oil production and 770 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, involving an investment of about $20 billion [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: There are optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, the US - Russia talks are cancelled and sanctions against Russia increase, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Bearish Factors: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production [6]. - Market Drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while there is a risk of increased supply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $64.06 to $65.16, an increase of 1.72%; WTI crude oil increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; SC crude oil decreased from 460.2 to 459.2, a decrease of 0.22%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.63 to $64.99, an increase of 0.56% [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $62.60 to $64.39, an increase of 2.86%; WTI increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; Oman crude oil decreased from $65.64 to $65.37, a decrease of 0.41%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $60.87 to $60.62, a decrease of 0.41%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $65.62 to $65.46, a decrease of 0.24% [9]. - Inventory Trends: API and EIA inventory data from August to October are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: Data from July 22 to September 23 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [16]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: Data from August 26 to October 28 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [19].