PTA、MEG早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly dominated by traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis runs at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 660,000 tons this week, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. There is still room for further accumulation of port inventory in the short term. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol, and the extrusion of the supply side is difficult to be reflected in the short term. The future spot liquidity will gradually become abundant. The coal market has been rising recently, providing some support to the cost link. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate mainly, with obvious pressure on the upper side [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fell in the late trading yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was relatively dull, the spot basis fluctuated in the range, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,580 - 4,620 at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract. There was a transaction at 01 - 73 at the beginning of December. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 77 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,604, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, which is bearish [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis was stable and slightly weak. The ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly at night. Some spot transactions were made at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The ethylene glycol market weakened during the day, and the spot price at the low end was around 3,940 yuan/ton. The basis was slightly adjusted to a premium of 66 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol in the external market weakened. The negotiation price of recent shipments in the morning was around 470 US dollars/ton, and it fell to around 465 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The buying sentiment in the market was weak, and there were few transactions [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3,979, and the basis of the 01 contract is 104, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [9]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, port inventory, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [10]. Price and Basis Data - Spot Price: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on November 11 and 10, 2025, and their price changes are provided, as well as the basis data of PTA and MEG futures contracts [11]. - Profit Data: The profit data of PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester fiber production (POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber) are provided [11]. Other Data There are also data on PET bottle - chip price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG price spreads, inventory, and the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry [13][17][22][28][35][38][50][54]