Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A-shares showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend, with sector rotation continuing. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - The pressure on funds has marginally eased, and the bond futures market showed an oscillating trend. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - The deterioration of US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market [8][9]. - The container shipping index showed a downward trend in the futures market. The spot market is still cold, and the upward trend of the main contract is difficult to sustain. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [11][12]. - Various metals in the non-ferrous metal sector showed different trends. For example, copper prices rebounded due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the release of liquidity risks; aluminum prices will fluctuate between event-driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [12][21]. - In the black metal sector, the inventories of iron and carbon elements are differentiated. The long coal and short hot-rolled coil strategy can continue to be held. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke all showed a downward trend [46][54][57]. - In the agricultural product sector, the export of US soybeans is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the USDA report on Friday [61]. Summaries According to the Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, A-shares opened higher in the morning and then oscillated weakly during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to mainly observe. If there is a significant decline in a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most bond futures contracts closed flat, and the yields of most major interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market declined. - Funding Situation: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan. The market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to go long on dips in a single - sided strategy. For the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: The US government's "re - opening" process is progressing steadily, and the recent US employment situation has continued to deteriorate, which has supported the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. The international gold price closed at $4,125.67 per ounce, up 0.24%, and the international silver price closed at $51.187 per ounce, up 1.37% [8][9]. - Future Outlook: The US economy and employment market are still affected by the government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is increasing. Precious metals are expected to enter a bull market in the medium and long term. It is recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotations: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports showed different ranges. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose 24.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index rose 4.94% month - on - month [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 1,750 - 1,950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased compared with the previous working day, and the market procurement sentiment improved [12]. - Macro: The expected end of the US government shutdown is expected to release liquidity, which is beneficial to copper prices [12]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the maintenance of 8 smelters. It is expected that the output in November will decrease slightly [13][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods increased. The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience, and there are still many purchase orders after the price decline [14]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 11, the average price of SMM Shandong aluminum oxide increased, while the prices in other regions were flat. The short - term supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is loose [16]. - Supply: In October, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 11, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the market shipment was active at high prices, but the actual transaction was less [19]. - Supply: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [19]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the short term [21]. Zinc - Spot: On November 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream demand was weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand replenishment [24]. - Supply: The supply of the zinc industry chain is gradually loosening, and the TC has turned from rising to falling. It is expected that the supply pressure will be limited in the future [25]. - Demand: The operating rates of the three primary processing industries of zinc showed a weak trend, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export window of refined zinc is open, which may boost domestic zinc prices [26]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: On November 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was relatively cold [28]. - Supply: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of smelters remains at a low level. It is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply this year is limited [31]. - Demand: The demand is still weak, and the order volume of the solder industry has decreased significantly. Although some tin consumption has been driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption [31]. - Operation Suggestions: Hold long positions and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [31]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is still at a high level, but it is expected to decrease month - on - month [32]. - Demand: The overall demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel is general. The demand for ternary materials has improved in the short term, but there is new production capacity in the medium term [32]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 11, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled steel decreased, and the raw material cost support declined [35]. - Supply: In October, the domestic stainless steel production increased month - on - month. It is expected that the production will decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series still remains at a high level [36]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 11, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the spot trading was still light [38]. - Supply: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production last week increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium spodumene and mica [39]. - Demand: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [39]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the performance near the previous high pressure level. The short - term view is wide - range oscillating adjustment [41]. Polysilicon - Spot Price: On November 12, the prices of polysilicon remained unchanged. The demand is expected to decline, and the silicon wafer price has decreased [42]. - Supply: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [42]. - Demand: The demand at all levels is expected to decline, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [46]. - Supply: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons in November [46]. - Demand: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [46]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of the November contract [47]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of steel remained stable, and the basis weakened [47]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [48]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to September. Recently, the molten iron output has declined, and the production of five major steel products has also decreased [48]. - Demand: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The current apparent demand has declined [48]. - Operation Suggestions: Hold the long coal and short hot - rolled coil strategy. Observe unilaterally and pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil [50]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 11, the price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [51]. - Futures: The iron ore futures prices declined, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [52]. - Demand: The daily molten iron output decreased, and the demand for iron ore decreased [53]. - Supply: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week [53]. - Operation Suggestions: Observe unilaterally. Arrange the long coking coal and short iron ore strategy [54]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures prices declined, while the domestic coking coal spot market continued to be strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to decline [55]. - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal decreased [55][56]. - Demand: The iron water output declined significantly, and the coking plant's start - up decreased slightly. The steel mill's replenishment demand weakened [56]. - Operation Suggestions: Consider the coking coal 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,170 - 1,290 yuan/ton [57]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures prices declined, and the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the fourth round of price increases, but it has not been implemented yet [58][60]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased, and the coking plant's start - up decreased [58]. - Demand: The iron water output declined significantly, and the steel mill's profit decreased, which suppressed the price increase of coke [59]. - Operation Suggestions: Consider the coke 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,650 - 1,780 yuan/ton [60]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On November 11, the domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends, and the rapeseed meal prices decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton [61]. - Fundamental News: The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1,088,577 tons, and the soybean harvest rate was 96% [61]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the USDA report on Friday as the US soybean export is still uncertain [61].
广发早知道：汇总版-20251112
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-12 02:40