大越期货螺卷早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - 螺纹 (Rebar): The demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the spot price at 3190 and a basis of 165, the national inventory in 35 major cities is 425.7 million tons, decreasing month - on - month but increasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Considering the weak real estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With the spot price at 3280 and a basis of 38, the national inventory in 33 major cities is 333.02 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is flat, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Given the increasing inventory, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 利多 (Positive Factors) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [4]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. 利空 (Negative Factors) - 螺纹 (Rebar): The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]. 价格 (Prices) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [9][15][21][23][26]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis [12][18][21]. 开工率 (Operating Rates) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Blast furnace operating rate, short - process electric furnace operating rate [29][32]. 产量 (Output) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Weekly output [35]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Weekly output [38]. 利润 (Profits) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit [41][46][48]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit [44][51]. 库存 (Inventory) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Social inventory, steel mill inventory [53][56]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Social inventory, steel mill inventory [59][62]. 表观消费 (Apparent Consumption) - 螺纹 (Rebar): Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [65][66][67][68]. - 热卷 (Hot - rolled coil): Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [70][72][73][74]. 其他 (Others) - Building materials trading volume, real estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price [75][78][80][82][85][87].