大越期货甲醇早报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid operations are at a low level, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With the current high domestic methanol operation rate and upstream methanol factories still focused on inventory clearance, the supply-demand contradiction is unlikely to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices and the cautious short - selling by traders, which provides support for the bottom price, the expected decline is limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and coastal MTO operation rates. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2070 - 2110 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation is expected to be weak, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly between 2070 - 2110. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2080 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 for the 01 contract, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol operation rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Short Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operation rates have significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 242 US dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 2132 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2082 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 19 yuan/ton to -22 yuan/ton [8]. - Operation Rate Data: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased, with decreases of 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - Inventory Data: East China port inventory increased by 0.62 tons to 78.8 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 49.81 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some plants have experienced temporary shutdowns due to equipment failures or other reasons [57]. - Overseas Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are generally operating normally. Some plants in Qatar and other regions are under maintenance [58]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have reduced operations, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Salt Lake. Some plants are expected to be put into operation, such as the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Baofeng [59].