大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is complex. The production and import volume of lithium carbonate in the future have different trends, and the demand is expected to strengthen, with potential inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760. The overall market shows a pattern of supply exceeding demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [8][9] - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9] - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with production losses. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [9][10] - Price range: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760 [9] - Influencing factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral [10] - Basis: On November 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.67% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.16%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 2.40%, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 1.88%, lower than the historical average [10] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10] - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [10] 3.3 Price and Supply - Demand Data - Lithium ore price: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 0.93% to 975 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) increased by 1.83% to 2220 yuan/ton [14] - Supply - side data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate increased. The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also increased [18] - Demand - side data: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly production and inventory of ternary precursors increased. The monthly production and loading volume of power batteries increased [18]