大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today, with overall bearish fundamentals due to oversupply, high industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices. However, there are also some positive factors such as new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino-US talks [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sino-US leaders held a meeting, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6820 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 60, with a premium ratio of 0.9%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - Positive Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [5]. - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October. Sino-US talks and OPEC+ decisions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6470 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 41, with a premium ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - Positive Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [7]. - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].