大越期货燃料油早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand in the Singapore market has been stable, but recent incremental supply from the Middle East has led to an oversupply, putting pressure on the downstream premium. The market is currently in a state where supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand co - exist. The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, and the increasing concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil to some extent. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2690 - 2730 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is stable, but supply from the Middle East has made the market oversupplied; the basis shows that the spot is nearly flat to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 140,000 barrels to 21.069 million barrels in the week of November 5; the price is near the 20 - day line which is flat; high - sulfur main positions are short - increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long - increasing. The expected end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil. FU2601: 2690 - 2730, LU2601: 3300 - 3340 [3]. - Futures Quotes: The current price of the FU main contract is 2675, down 8 or 0.30% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3264, down 4 or 0.12%. The FU basis is - 10, up 9 or 47.35%, and the LU basis is 18, down 17 or 48.63% [5]. - Spot Quotes: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 469.00, down 1.00 or 0.21%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 479.00, up 1.00 or 0.21%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 361.65, down 1.91 or 0.53%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 448.52, down 4.98 or 1.10%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 331.38, down 1.53 or 0.46%; Singapore diesel is 694.91, down 9.57 or 1.36% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Focus - Positive Factors: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - Market Drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 140,000 barrels in the week of November 5 to 21.069 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [10].