大越期货PVC期货早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The cost is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4547 - 4597 [7][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on November 11 showed that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which was neutral. The inventory situation was mixed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the social inventory increasing, also being neutral. The disk showed a bearish signal as the MA20 was downward and the 01 contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [7][9]. - The main logic was the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points included the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and the ethylene method enterprise production was 146770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had different start - up rate changes, with some decreasing and some remaining flat or increasing. The shipping cost was expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price was competitive, but the current demand might remain weak [5]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling might be under pressure [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 334596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 84200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. The social inventory was 545700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The production enterprise inventory days were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65% [9]. 3.2.5 Position - The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provided detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [14][15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It included the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures [17][20][21]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It covered the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impact on PVC production [26][29][31][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply - It showed the capacity utilization rate, production profit, and production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.5.3 PVC Demand - It analyzed the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment [43][45][47]. 3.5.4 PVC Inventory - It presented the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide method factory, ethylene method factory, and social inventory, as well as the production enterprise inventory days [54][55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It included the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [56][57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It showed the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC, presenting the supply - demand trends [60].