永安期货集运早报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the EC2602 contract's price rose due to early rumors of the 02 pricing index, and other contracts were also driven up. However, in the afternoon, the EC2512 contract dropped significantly because MSK opened cabins and lowered prices. The EC2512 contract has a neutral valuation and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation of the price - holding strategy in December. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term following the spot price and shipping companies' announcements. The EC2602 contract's valuation is harder to determine and is expected to mainly follow the EC2512 contract in the short - term. If the shipping volume during the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is a slack - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term during the peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure and the slack season in April next year, a short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2512 contract closed at 1746.1, down 1.81%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1690.5, up 5.33%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1187.8, up 1.86%; the FC2606 contract closed at 1423.9, up 2.06%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1545.0, up 3.33%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1137.5, up 0.30% [2]. - Open Interest Changes: The open interest of the EC2512 contract decreased by 1475 to 25205; the EC2602 contract increased by 4654 to 29350; the EC2604 contract increased by 279 to 14730; the FC2606 contract decreased by 23 to 1423; the EC2608 contract decreased by 73 to 1213; the EC2610 contract increased by 122 to 1607 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.3, down 56.8 from the previous day and 109.0 from the previous week; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 55.6, down 117.7 from the previous day and 203.9 from the previous week; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 502.7, up 63.9 from the previous day and 94.9 from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot Indices - SCEIS: Updated every Monday, as of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80 points, up 24.50% from the previous period and down - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down - 1.56% from the previous period and up 7.87% from two periods ago [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period and up 2.37% from two periods ago [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down - 5.58% from the previous period and up 17.43% from two periods ago [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Freight Quotes - 45th Week: The average freight rate was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures disk) [2]. - 46th Week: The average freight rate was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures disk) [2]. - Shipping Companies' Quotes: Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for mid - to - late November, but MSK opened cabins at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week and may announce a price increase for December. OOCL lowered its online quote for November by 300 US dollars to 2600 US dollars. MSK's cabin - opening quote for the 48th week was 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 US dollars on the futures disk [2]. 3.4 Related News - Geopolitical News: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has expired. Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the agreement, and the second - stage cease - fire negotiation is still "far from sight" [3]. - Policy News: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant regulations on charging special port fees for US ships for one year, synchronizing with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [4].