《农产品》日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report's inventory growth risk, the futures price is in a volatile rebound and is expected to strengthen to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in Malaysia and 8900 yuan in the domestic Dalian market [1]. - Soybean oil: The EPA's approval of small refinery exemptions increases the uncertainty of renewable fuels, pressuring CBOT soybean oil. Domestic spot basis quotes are expected to fluctuate narrowly [1]. Sugar - International: The end of the US government shutdown warms the macro - market, but the supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price is in a weak and volatile trend. - Domestic: Constrained by import quotas, the price follows the decline less significantly. The new sugar season in Guangxi is expected to start late, and the price is expected to fluctuate [3][4]. Corn - The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply pressure still exists in November, but there is cost and storage policy support. The short - term price is affected by demand from different industries [5]. Cotton - US cotton: The listing inspection is progressing steadily, but due to global high yields, it maintains a low - level volatile trend. - Domestic cotton: There is hedging pressure, but also cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. Meal - The market is waiting for the USDA report. The US soybean support is strengthening, but the 13% tariff on US soybeans in China affects exports. Domestic soybean inventory is high, and soybean meal is expected to be in a wide - range shock [11]. Pork - The spot price is weak, and the overall supply is normal. The slowdown of the November planned slaughter may boost the price. The price is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held, with a cautiously bullish view on the single - side [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is stable. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom. Short - sell the December contract and pay attention to the 3400 resistance of the January contract [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18% to 8550 yuan/ton, and the futures price Y2601 increased by 0.12% to 8238 yuan/ton. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.58% to 8610 yuan/ton, and the futures price P2601 increased by 0.92% to 8770 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.03% to 10030 yuan/ton, and the futures price OI601 increased by 1.96% to 9775 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread Changes: - Soybean oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 7.83% to 212. - Palm oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 17.65% to - 84. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread 01 - 05 increased by 3.15% to 426 [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: - The price of SR2601 increased by 0.09% to 5480 yuan/ton, and SR2605 increased by 0.11% to 5411 yuan/ton. - The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.14% to 14.28 cents/lb [3]. - Spot Market: - The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Kunming at 5650 yuan/ton. - The Nanning basis decreased by 1.60% to 369 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 2.45% to 239 yuan/ton [3]. - Industry Situation: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. - Guangxi's sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and monthly sales decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons [3]. Corn - Price Changes: - The price of C2601 increased by 0.60% to 2177 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.46% to 2180 yuan/ton. - The Shekou bulk grain price increased by 1.32% to 2300 yuan/ton [5]. - Profit and Spread: - The north - south trade profit increased by 222.22% to 29 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 13.30% to 264 yuan/ton. - The corn 1 - 5 spread increased by 10.47% to - 77 [5]. Cotton - Futures Market: - The price of CF2605 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton, and CF2601 decreased by 0.15% to 13560 yuan/ton. - The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.64% to 63.93 cents/lb [8]. - Spot Market: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.02% to 14668 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14842 yuan/ton [8]. - Industry Situation: - Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% to 293.06 million tons, and industrial inventory increased by 9.7% to 88.82 million tons. - The import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons [8]. Meal - Price Changes: - The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3060 yuan/ton, and the futures price M2601 decreased by 0.29% to 3054 yuan/ton. - The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, and the futures price RM2601 decreased by 1.07% to 2500 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread Changes: - The soybean meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 6.84% to 218, and the rapeseed meal inter - period spread 01 - 05 decreased by 20.20% to 79 [11]. Pork - Futures Market: - The price of LH2605 decreased by 0.04% to 12065 yuan/ton, and LH2601 decreased by 1.67% to 11755 yuan/ton. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 169.57% to - 310 [14]. - Spot Market: - The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 11850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 12080 yuan/ton [14]. - Industry Indicators: - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.45% to 162448, and the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.70 yuan/kg [14]. Eggs - Futures Market: - The price of the December egg contract decreased by 0.76% to 3152 yuan/500KG, and the January contract decreased by 0.30% to 3373 yuan/500KG [18]. - Spot Market: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 1.32% to 3.01 yuan/jin, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 1.68% to 2.34 [18]. - Industry Situation: - The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to be stable in November, and the supply pressure remains [18].