Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - Production Indicators: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - Spot Prices and Price Indexes: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - Supply Indicators: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - Demand Indicators: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - Overseas Coal Prices: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - Supply Indicators: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].
《黑色》日报-20251112
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-12 06:36