建信期货工业硅日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.54%. The supply has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the spot price stalemate restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price is in a convergent and volatile state [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The trading volume was 326,774 lots, and the open interest was 270,959 lots, with a net decrease of 10,544 lots. The spot price was stable, with the 553 price ranging from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,750 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 11, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,079 lots, a net decrease of 176 lots from the previous trading day. On November 7, the industrial silicon market inventory was 452,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 42.49%. The weekly output was 90,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7.85% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. On October 30, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its Q3 2025 report. Its operating income in the first three quarters was 15.206 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 321 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 122.1%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 104.94%. In the third quarter, the operating income was 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 19.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 111.52% [5]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The weekly output has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons. Pay attention to the implementation of the expected production cuts in the southwest region. In the short term, it is difficult to see a reversal in supply and demand. The expected output of polysilicon is also decreasing, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the stalemate in the spot price restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price of the main contract is still oscillating within the adjustment range after the anti - involution competition [4].