Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The spot price of polysilicon will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term. The supply improvement of polysilicon lacks internal driving force, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the lower edge of the range [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract fluctuated strongly first. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.08%. The trading volume was 218,786 lots, and the open interest was 125,974 lots, with a net increase of 457 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat month - on - month [4]. b. Future Market Outlook - In November, the polysilicon output was 120,000 tons. Whether the production cut will be implemented under the current profit improvement needs further observation. The output of downstream silicon wafers and cells remained stable at 55 - 60GW, but there was no optimistic expectation for the repair of the cliff - like decline in terminal demand. The industrial chain profit was currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the downstream's willingness to continue price hikes was decreasing [4]. - The policy support continued to fall short, and the internal driving force for the improvement of polysilicon supply - demand was limited. There was an increase in positions and a decline in volume during the session, so attention should be paid to the support strength at the lower edge of the range (net short increase of 11,785) [4]. c. Market News - On November 11, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,850 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [4]. d. Energy Development Measures - Coordinate the external transmission and local consumption of "Shagehuang" new energy bases, optimize the integrated development and consumption of hydropower, wind, and solar bases, promote the standardized and orderly development and consumption of offshore wind power, scientifically and efficiently promote the development and consumption of provincial - level centralized new energy, and actively expand the development and consumption space of distributed new energy [4][5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-12 07:02