广发期货《黑色》日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong performance, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. With the expected decline in hot metal and high steel inventories, the hot metal production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply in the January contract is turning loose, and there is a basis for negative feedback in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be continued, and the main risk is the coal mine复产 situation. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Night trading of iron ore was strong, and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin dropped significantly, hot metal production declined from a high level, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. If the steel mill losses continue to increase and the finished product destocking is not as expected, the iron ore price may hit a new low. However, under the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in hot metal is low. In terms of strategy, the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage can partially stop profit, and wait for the coking coal to stabilize [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot - futures market was not in sync. The third round of coke price increase was implemented on November 5th, and the fourth round was launched on November 7th but not yet landed. On the supply side, coking coal prices in the Shanxi market were strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still faced losses after the price increase, and their开工 rate decreased. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, and steel prices were weak, suppressing the coke price increase. In terms of inventory, there was a slight destocking in coking plants, ports, and steel mills. Coke may still have a price increase expectation due to cost support. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1650 - 1780, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coke [7]. - Coking coal futures also showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, but the price increase was too fast, making traders cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia resumed production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November. On the demand side, the decline in profit and environmental protection restrictions led to a significant decline in hot metal production, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. In terms of inventory, there was destocking in coal mines and steel mills, and inventory accumulation in coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1170 - 1290, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and +10 yuan/ton. Rebar futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 13, 3, and 19 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and +10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 10, 9, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China were - 30, - 110, and - 40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, - 3, and - 13 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were - 110, - 100, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, +7, and +7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). Rebar production was 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (- 1.7%). - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (- 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [1]. Trading Volume and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 91, down 17 (- 15.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads of iron ore futures contracts changed by +0.5, - 1.0, and +0.5 respectively [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 477.2 tons (- 14.8%) this week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.8 tons (0.2%), the national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons (- 5.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 tons (- 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 229.4 tons (1.5%) compared with Monday, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 tons (1.8%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 59 and 46 yuan/ton respectively. - Coking coal prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 33 yuan/ton (- 2.4%). Coking coal futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 53 and 31 yuan/ton respectively [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production (weekly): The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%). - Coking coal production (weekly): The raw coal production decreased by 3.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the clean coal production decreased by 2.0 tons (- 0.5%) [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory (weekly): The total coke inventory decreased by 13 tons (- 1.4%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.6 tons (- 2.6%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the port inventory decreased by 9 tons (- 4.3%). - Coking coal inventory (weekly): The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.8 tons (- 0.9%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 17.5 tons (1.7%), the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9 tons (- 1.1%), and the port inventory increased by 14.1 tons (4.9%) [7].