原木期货日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. Although the supply of logs is expected to increase this week and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market, the current low futures price and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provide some support from import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On November 11, the price of log2511 remained unchanged at 740.0, while log2601 decreased by 6.0 to 776.5, with a decline of 0.77%. Log2603 dropped by 3.5 to 791.5, a decrease of 0.44%, and log2605 fell by 2.5 to 810.5, a decline of 0.31%. [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 11 compared to the previous day. The CFR prices of radiata pine and spruce in the outer - market also remained stable. [1] - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.124 on November 11, with a slight increase of 0.004 compared to the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 812.17 yuan, an increase of 0.38 yuan. [1] Supply - Monthly Supply: In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships at the port increased by 8.0 to 54.0, a 17.39% increase. [1] - Weekly Supply: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a 25% week - on - week decrease. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a 26% week - on - week decrease. [2] Inventory - Weekly Inventory: As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 293 million cubic meters, a 1.74% increase from the previous week. The inventory in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu all showed varying degrees of increase. [1][2] Demand - Weekly Demand: As of November 7, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.63 million cubic meters, a 6% increase from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong increased by 19%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 6%. [2]