瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slightly decreases and demand gradually increases, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,840.00 yuan/ton, up 210.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,834.00 dollars/ton, up 7.00 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 200,769.00 lots, down 1,602.00 lots. The futures top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper is - 20,440.00 lots, down 229.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,250.00 tons, down 25.00 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 115,035.00 tons, down 1,105.00 tons. The SHFE warrant of cathode copper is 44,088.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,795.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,910.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 45.00 yuan/ton, down 180.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread is - 21.28 dollars/ton, down 6.43 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.20 million tons. The copper smelter's roughing charge (TC) is - 42.04 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.11 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,150.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,850.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan. The southern processing fee of blister copper is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; the northern processing fee is 900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, down 3.50 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000.00 tons, down 52,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,040.00 yuan/ton, up 450.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550.00 yuan/ton, up 350.00 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.10 thousand pieces, up 120,949.00 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.41%, down 0.92%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.33%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 13.78%, up 0.0017%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is up 0.0127 [2] Industry News - From the four - week period ending October 25, the US private sector on average lost 11,250 jobs per week, and Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls in October decreased by about 50,000, the largest decline since 2020. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. The NDRC has recommended 105 REITs projects to the CSRC, 83 of which have been issued and listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for over 50% of the total new vehicle sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%. The NDRC held a private enterprise symposium, and enterprises suggested improving policy support systems such as social security and taxation in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]