瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251112

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - Positions: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - Spot Prices: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - Basis: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].