Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions. The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report emphasized strengthening the consistency of macro - policy orientation and conducting counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The weekly output of rebar decreased and remained at a low level, with Xinjiang expected to reduce construction steel output by about 2 million tons during the winter shutdown period, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total construction steel output in Xinjiang in 2025. Terminal demand declined, but inventories have been falling for four consecutive weeks. Overall, the macro - environment shows positive signals, and there is an expectation of further contraction in construction steel output, causing steel prices to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that the centers of DIFF and DEA are moving up. The recommended operation is to go long on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the position volume was 1,868,036 hands, down 55,665 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 80,255 hands, up 14,373 hands; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was - 58 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 117,093 tons, down 5,119 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,313 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the RB main contract was 192 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. - China's monthly rebar output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. - The area of unsold commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Starting from 18:00 on November 12, 2025, Handan will launch a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around November 16. - Last week, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.2796 million square meters, down 26.6% month - on - month and 38.3% year - on - year; the total transaction area of second - hand housing (contract signing) was 2.0211 million square meters, down 4.8% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251112
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-12 08:55