瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the production and sales of enterprises are balanced. Although individual enterprises may have short - term production adjustments, the overall supply increase trend is hard to change. The demand from the float glass industry is poor, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry has weakened recently. Soda ash prices declined slightly today, and the decline may continue. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract at high prices in the short term [2]. - For glass, the cold - repair of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area in November has reduced short - term supply and supported prices. However, there are plans for production line restart and new line construction in the medium - and long - term, so supply pressure is increasing. The demand from the real estate market is still weak, and although the automobile glass market is stable and the photovoltaic glass market is a new growth point, they cannot fully offset the real - estate demand decline. Glass showed signs of stopping the decline today, but trading volume needs to be observed. It is recommended to pay attention to the glass main contract [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 165 yuan/ton, with a change of 3; glass main contract closing price: data not clearly presented. Soda ash main contract position: 1316241 lots, a decrease of 7969; glass main contract position: 2009725 lots, an increase of 21061. Soda ash top 20 net position: - 253236, a decrease of 23273; glass top 20 net position: - 343339, an increase of 1937. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 6999 tons, a decrease of 1315; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 498 tons, a decrease of 48. Soda ash basis: - 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16; glass basis: - 17, no change. The spread between January and May glass contracts: - 120, an increase of 11; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts: - 73, an increase of 4 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1170 yuan/ton, no change; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, no change. East China light soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, no change; Central China light soda ash: 1145 yuan/ton, no change. Shahe glass large plate: 1032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4; Central China glass large plate: 1140 yuan/ton, no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.67%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.92%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity: 15.91 million tons/year, a decrease of 0.21 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 222, a decrease of 4. Soda ash enterprise inventory: 170.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6313.6 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 265.4 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 453990000 square meters, an increase of 55979900 square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 311290000 square meters, an increase of 34354600 square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Many soda ash enterprises have production status changes, such as Henan Zhongyuan Chemical's stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan's production increase, and some enterprises' production reduction or load - adjustment. New production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu Chemical and others is expected to be put into operation in December, which will intensify the future supply - surplus situation [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is high, demand is weak, and the price decline may continue. Short at high prices in the short term. Glass: Short - term supply reduction supports prices, but medium - and long - term supply pressure increases. Demand from the real - estate market is poor, and the price showed signs of stopping the decline, but trading volume needs to be observed [2].