苹果产业日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current inventory of late Fuji apples is at a relatively low level in recent years. As the market gradually reflects this situation, price fluctuations are intensifying. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9207 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 144,369 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5092 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9677 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2284 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 3.5 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons per year; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.49 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.04 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons per week. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 0.57, and that of Shaanxi is 0.41. The monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of apples is - 8.5%. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.66 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.39 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.36 yuan/kg. The weekly average number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2, with a week - on - week decrease of 4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 17; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, there is not much remaining ground - traded inventory, and merchants mainly purchase for market transactions. Some cold - storage transactions have started, and the price of cold - storage apples is stable with a slight increase in some areas. In the Shandong production area, the supply volume is acceptable, but due to the decline in the quality of ground - sourced apples, the price has dropped, while the demand for small apples is strong and the price is firm. The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. In terms of the cold - storage progress, Gansu's cold - storage is basically completed, Shaanxi's is nearing completion, and in Shandong's Qixia area, a large amount of fruit farmer's apples are still being stored [2]