瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market's supply surplus forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered to 1 million tons due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and India [2]. - The Brazilian sugar export volume increased in October, but the overall supply pressure remains obvious. However, as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to decline seasonally [2]. - The domestic sugar market is less affected by price drops due to import quotas and policies. Sugar mills in Guangxi are focusing on inventory reduction, and the new crushing season may start later, providing more sales opportunities for old sugar [2]. - There are no significant driving factors in the market, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 372,984 lots, a decrease of 3,343 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,721, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -52,961 lots, a decrease of 889 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4,996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi it was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi it was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugarcane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons; the monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of Brazilian sugar was 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar was 7.27%, an increase of 0.48%; that of put options was 7.28%, an increase of 0.49% [2]. - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar was 5.23%, a decrease of 2.03%; the 60-day historical volatility was 6.86%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Consulting firm Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market's supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and India [2]. - The ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday, stabilizing after hitting a five-year low, as the market awaited Brazilian production data [2].