广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term may fluctuate between 6200 - 6800. With the terminal demand entering the off - season and many PTA device maintenance plans in November, the supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the price drive is limited. [1] - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, but mid - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The price rebound is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate between 4300 - 4800. [1] - MEG: Although the polyester load can be maintained, the inventory accumulation in November and December is expected to be high, and the price is under pressure. [1] - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the rebound space is limited. The processing fee may be compressed. [1] - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. The price follows the cost - end fluctuation. [1] Methanol Industry The market is trading the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being the high port inventory. The 01 contract's inventory problem cannot be solved, and it is weak before the Iranian gas restriction. [2] Polyolefin Industry PP shows both supply and demand growth but accumulates inventory slightly this week due to new production capacity pressure. PE has weak supply and demand, and although it has destocked this week, the port inventory is still high. The market expectation is still weak. [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although the disk rebounds in the short - term, the mid - term demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound. [7] - Glass: The short - term has certain rigid demand support, but the mid - to long - term demand is worrying, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, with increasing supply and weak demand from the main downstream. The price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may have short - term support from downstream replenishment. [8] - PVC: The supply - demand surplus problem is not improved, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand expectation. The price is expected to be weak at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber Industry The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate. If the raw material output in the main production areas is smooth, there is room for further decline; otherwise, it may run around 15000 - 15500. [9] Crude Oil Industry The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and Brent crude oil may run between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. [10] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The BZ2603 can be treated as short on rallies following the oil price. [14] - Styrene: The supply - demand may turn loose, and the price drive is insufficient. The EB12 can be shorted on rebounds. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.7% increase; WTI crude oil (December) rose 0.91 to 61.04 US dollars per barrel, a 1.5% increase. [1] - CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 2 to 577 US dollars per ton, a 0.3% decrease. [1] Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price rose 45 to 6600 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase; FDY150/96 price rose 35 to 6805 yuan/ton, a 0.5% increase. [1] - The cash flows of different polyester products have different changes, such as POY150/48 cash flow increasing by 146.1%. [1] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price decreased by 5 to 4600 yuan/ton, a 0.1% decrease; TA futures 2601 decreased by 56 to 4648 yuan/ton, a 1.2% decrease. [1] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations - MEG port inventory increased by 9.9 to 66.1 million tons, a 17.6% increase; the arrival expectation decreased by 0.8 to 18.1 million tons, a 4.2% decrease. [1] Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes - Asian PX start - up rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 80.2%; China PX start - up rate increased by 2.7 percentage points to 89.8%. [1] Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2082 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan, a 0.9% decrease; MA2605 closed at 2194 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a 0.63% decrease. [2] Methanol Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04 to 38.641%, a 2.75% increase; methanol port inventory increased by 1.06 to 151.7 million tons, a 0.71% increase. [2] Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.31 to 76.09%, a 0.41% increase; downstream external - procurement MTO device start - up rate increased by 0.92 to 84.98%, a 1.09% increase. [2] Polyolefin Industry Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6760 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a 0.62% decrease; PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan, a 0.79% decrease. [5] Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.42 to 49.0 million tons, a 17.84% increase; PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.48 to 60.0 million tons, a 0.81% increase. [5] Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - PE device start - up rate increased by 1.72 to 82.6%, a 2.13% increase; PP device start - up rate increased by 0.72 to 77.8%, a 0.93% increase. [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry Prices and Spreads - Glass: North - China quoted price decreased by 20 to 1110 yuan/ton, a 1.77% decrease; glass 2601 decreased by 22 to 1069 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease. [7] - Soda Ash: North - China quoted price remained at 1300 yuan/ton; soda ash 2601 increased by 16 to 1226 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase. [7] Supply - Soda Ash start - up rate decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 86.89%; soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.3 to 75.76 million tons, a 1.71% decrease. [7] Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 296.6 to 6579.00 million weight - boxes, a 4.72% increase; soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.2 to 170.20 million tons, a 2.54% increase. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Prices and Spreads - 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4520 yuan/ton. [8] Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.8 to 21.5 million tons, a 3.5% decrease; PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.3 to 33.5 million tons, a 1.0% decrease. [8] Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.5 to 89.9%, a 1.7% increase; PVC total start - up rate increased by 2.2 to 79.3%, a 2.8% increase. [8] Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 150 to 14700 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase; the whole - latex basis increased by 165 to - 395 yuan/ton, a 29.46% increase. [9] Production and Consumption Data - September Thai production decreased by 26 to 451.50 million tons, a 5.45% decrease; September domestic tire production increased by 53.3 to 10348.7 million pieces, a 0.52% increase. [9] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.72% increase; WTI crude oil rose 0.91 to 61.04 US dollars per barrel, a 1.51% increase. [10] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 4.09 to 201.20 US cents per gallon, a 2.07% increase; ICE Gasoil increased by 27.25 to 749.25 US dollars per ton, a 3.77% increase. [10] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (December) rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.7% increase; CFR China pure benzene decreased by 3 to 663 US dollars per ton, a 0.5% decrease. [14] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East - China spot price decreased by 90 to 6250 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease; EB futures 2512 decreased by 84 to 6231 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. [14] Inventory - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.6 to 12.10 million tons, a 42.4% increase; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 1.37 to 17.93 million tons, a 7.1% decrease. [14] Industry Chain Start - up Rates - Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained at 78.8%; domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.0 to 75.1%, a 1.4% increase. [14]